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At the start of the year it looked like Canada was getting ready to repeat a political story we’ve seen play out across the globe.
After decades-high levels of inflation, amid a shortage of affordable housing and a backlash to liberal immigration policies, the unpopular incumbent, the Liberals, seemed destined for electoral defeat.
But then two things happened: On January 6th, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, boasting a mere 22 percent approval rating, announced he would resign. And two weeks later, President Trump took office, talking about turning Canada into America’s 51st state and threatening many — and then levying some — new tariffs on Canada.
Since Trump was inaugurated, Canadian Conservatives have gone from a 23 point lead in the polls on average to a 4 point deficit. Now, newly selected Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is testing whether that dynamic can last another month. This past Sunday he called for a snap election to be held on April 28th.
I could think of no one better to talk to about all this than the election forecasters of Canada: Philippe Fournier, Editor-in-Chief of 338Canada, and Eric Grenier, author of The Writ.
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