This is an audio preview of the full draft, which is available to paid subscribers here.
On Wednesday afternoon, Nate Silver and I went live on Substack to host our first ever 2028 Democratic primary draft. We said it was “way-too-early,” but I’m not sure that’s right. The potential candidates themselves certainly don’t seem to think so. Look at just about any ambitious Democrat and it will be clear that they are making moves: doing arena tours, starting podcasts, showcasing their abilities to “get sh*t done.” So we took the opportunity to put our early assumptions for 2028 on the record.
Nate put together the scoring system for this draft and it goes as follows:
25 points for becoming the nominee
5 points for officially running
5 points for surviving (not officially withdrawing) before the first DNC-recognized primary or caucus
4 points per state or territory won before Super Tuesday (officially recognized contests by DNC only)
2 points per state or territory won on or after Super Tuesday (officially recognized contests by DNC only)
1 bonus point per state won with >= 15 electoral votes and/or pivotal electoral states, defined as CA, TX, FL, NY, PA, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, AZ, WI, NV.
Not a snake draft. We’ll flip a coin, and the winner can decide to go first or second, but whoever picks second in the draft gets 5 bonus points, plus wins in the event of a tie.
Let us know what you think of our competing slates of potential nominees and also be sure to subscribe to Nate’s Substack Silver Bulletin, if you don’t already!
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